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Page 4: No mathematical model can capture the intricacies. Emanuel Derman, The Boys Guide to Pricing and Hedging, Risk, January 2003. Page 5: As a physicist, when you propose a model. Derman, My Life as a Quant, 267. Page 6: There is an almost religious quality. Derman, My Life as a Quant. Page 7: Neoclassical economics works really well. Chris Farrell, Economists Suffer from Physics Envy, BusinessWeek interview, February 20, 2006. Page 7: We weren t widely warned as to. Bruce Jacobs, Capital Ideas and Market Realities (Blackwell, 1999), 98. Page 9: In the Mediocristan world of sports. www.yaronkoren .com/blog/ p=94. Page 10: If the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Eric Gelman, Fear of a Black Swan, Fortune interview, April 3, 2008. Page 10: Trying to model something that escapes modelization. Ibid. Page 14: In the beginning, when I knew close to nothing. Nassim Taleb, Fooled by Randomness (Texere, 2001), 97. Page 16: The hurricane is not more or less. Richard Bookstaber, A Demon of Our Own Design (John Wiley & Sons, 2007), 112. Page 20: VaR, stress tests and other risk measures. Christine Harper, Death of VaR Evoked, Bloomberg, January 28, 2008. Page 21: In one study of U.S. banks. Jeremy Berkowitz and James O Brien, How Accurate Are Value at Risk Models At Commercial Banks, FEDS Working Paper No. 2001-31, July 2001. Page 22: The only function of economic forecasting is. http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Economics. Page 22: Economists have never had much luck. John Faust, John Rogers, and Jonathan Wright, Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We ve Really Made, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers, December 2001. Page 23: In 1999, Washington, D.C. based Heritage Foundation. Heritage Center for Data Analysis, How Reliable Are IMF Forecasts August 27, 1999.

Throughout the next year and a half, I received numerous reports of theft by Blake Styles and his Internet companies In total, I received 17 reports and had 21 victims on record, with an estimated nancial loss of more than $25,000 It seemed obvious that Blake Styles was engaged in an organized Internet scam to defraud people of their money A review of the bank records showed that the checks the victims sent Blake were deposited into an account at a bank where I had a good contact He was an ex-law enforcement of cer who was now the fraud investigator at the suspect s bank To speed up the case and see if a subpoena for surveillance photos of any transactions was necessary, I sent my contact copies of the deposits made by Blake He said the bank might have a video of the transaction.

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Claiming matters: changing patterns of benefit receipt across Wales, 1995 to 2000 Talk presented at ESRC Research Methods Programme Seminar: Linking Survey Responses and Administrative Records, London Retrieved January 2, 2008, from wwwccsracuk/methods/events/linkage/ Michaud, S, Dolson, D and Renaud, M (1995) Combining administrative and survey data to reduce respondent burden in longitudinal surveys Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics Research Paper, No 95 19 Ottawa: Statistics Canada Nathan, G (2001) Models for combining longitudinal data from administrative sources and panel surveys, Proceedings of the 53rd Session of the International Statistical Institute: Invited Papers, pp 350 355 Olson, J A (1999) Linkages with data from Social Security administrative records in the Health and Retirement Study Social Security Bulletin, 62, 73 84 Olson, J A (2002) Social security benefit reporting in the Survey of Income and Program Participation and in social security administrative records ORES Working Paper, No.

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I immediately requested that the state attorney s of ce issue a subpoena for the bank records of Blake s account and the surveillance video After a review, it was clear I was looking at the culprit s bank records I viewed the surveillance photos of a man making a deposit at a drive-up window and compared it to Blake s driver s license photo it was a match It was also helpful that the suspect put his picture on his own Web site for us The photograph he had displayed on his professional services Web site also matched the license and surveillance photo This was key evidence for me in the case One of the most dif cult tasks in solving an Internet fraud is identifying the suspect because there is almost never a witness to the crime.

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