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Let s turn now to the social sector in poor countries. In those countries, a host of international development agencies are leading the fight against poverty. They have not fared well: In the past few decades, poverty has increased in most developing countries. But despite the overall picture, can we find any successes within it If so, that might show the way to build up more, to carry success to scale. So we search the globe for what works, as if we were casting the Trotter matrix across it. Latitude and longitude become the matrix grid. Our globe-Trotter covers the earth. What do we catch in its net First, we must choose among the many organizations to study. Let s start with two: the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Both date from the 1940s, when Europe began to rebuild after World War II. In later decades, the same agencies moved on to developing countries. The World Bank makes loans for economic development projects, while the IMF makes loans to tide countries over when their whole economy

core capping machine is needed for capping IC cores. (Arrow Mfg. Company)

So on the one hand, de Bono believes in expert intuition On the other hand, it comes in the wrong place Let s go through the hats again The white hat of information comes first That s fine De Bono puts the green hat second, to provide creative thinking and new ideas Then the third (yellow) and fourth (black) hats evaluate those ideas The red hat of intuition comes fifth, to react to those ideas, after their evaluation by the yellow and black hats That s far too late for the red hat to matter However, all the elements are there We can just reorder de Bono s hats to yield the art of what works Here s how: The red hat of intuition comes second, after the white hat of information Then come the others.

core cylinder and key stamping fixture and supplies needed for servicing IC cores. (Arrow Mfg. Company)

The same is true for most methods of creative thinking: You can usually find a way to adjust them to allow for expert intuition Let s take another example, from Creative Problem Solving by Arthur VanGundy9 Here we find the group technique of successive integration of problem elements You take a problem and ask each member of the group to write down in silence ideas to solve it Then you read the ideas aloud, but in a special sequence First, two members of the group each pick one idea that they wrote down and read it aloud Second, the whole group chimes in to combine the two ideas into one idea Third, someone else reads out one idea Fourth, the whole group chimes in again, to combine its combined idea with this new one Fifth, someone else reads out one idea And so on through the whole group.

6 51 2 81 2 61 2 51 2 9 5 51 2 3 5

Figure 2.17 A variety of lock picks allow the locksmith to choose the best one for a given lock. (A-1 Security Manufacturing Corp.)

The result is one idea, based on the ideas of everyone in the group If at the end you re not satisfied with the final idea, you use it to start again That is, everyone writes down one idea to add to that idea Repeat as needed You keep going until a workable solution is found or time expires So that is successive integration of problem elements How can we add expert intuition At each step, you ask what past experience the idea or combination of ideas might come from A successful strategy is a course.

of action, not a single decision, so this sequential method might offer a way to put several activities together. In a series of coups d oeil, you assemble a strategy. To use creative stimulation in the art of what works: Researchers know what environments stimulate creativity. Researchers don t know what environments stimulate success. You can add expert intuition to methods of creative thinking.

tool makes it easy to remove stubborn mortise cylinders without stripping their threads. (A-1 Security Manufacturing Corp.)

Expert intuition is not the opposite of analysis. It uses a certain kind of analysis, based on the rapid recognition of familiar patterns. In his study of chess masters, Herbert Simon converted their moves into complex computer programs that captured their expert intuition. More recently, IBM developed a computer program that beat Garry Kasparov, the reigning world champion, in 1997, after losing in 1989 and 1996. But chess is easy. You know all the rules and all the possible moves. In business, every important decision has unforeseen angles and implications. How well do computers do in business intuition In a 1993 article, A Pyramid of Decision Approaches, Paul Schoemaker and J. Edward Russo present methods of capturing expert intuition on a computer.10 Sure enough, they begin with a quote by our own expert strategist, Napoleon:

Figure 2.19 A pin kit holds tumblers, springs, and other supplies needed to rekey lock cylinders. (Arrow Mfg. Company)