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wide cross section of applications and asked the expert to rate them for fraud potential Then they took her results and plotted them out across the various factors she listed That gave the weights she used For example, the data might show that she counted an evasive police report twice as much as divorce It was not something she knew she did She just did it Bootstrapping is quite a compliment to experts: It enshrines what they do But very often, experts don t like it On this score, Schoemaker and Russo give the example of Harris Investment Management It used a bootstrapping program for investment strategy that gave analysts and portfolio experts the power to override it The program improved the company s bottom-line results Even so, several intuitive experts left the bank because they perceived their role as having been diminished by the new process.

Schoemaker and Russo s third method of computerizing expertise is value analysis It applies complex rules to complex decisions by asking what decision makers want, or value, and what characteristics they think they should look at For example, a large oil and gas multinational used value analysis to make an important strategic investment decision : Where should it build a $500 million pilot plant The company considered more than 10 countries, each of which had dozens of advantages and disadvantages Senior executives and technical experts first laid out the criteria they thought were important, then rated each country on how well it met those criteria Thanks to a complete, careful, and generally honest analysis, the company agreed on the rankings quickly and picked the country that came out on top.

tion to holding a plug that s being serviced, plug holders allow a locksmith to make sure a rekeyed plug will rotate in the cylinder properly before inserting it back into the cylinder. (A-1 Security Manufacturing Corp.)

As we see from this example, value analysis does not draw on the actual results of experts; instead, it draws on their judgments For this reason, it is weaker than bootstrapping But value analysis has the added advantage of drawing in some way on all the experts involved through a method that seems fair to all It is no small achievement that the company came to a quick decision on such a complex question We imagine everyone pitching in after the decision in order to make it work, rather than second-guessing a decision made by someone else..

Figure 2.23 A plug spinner is designed to be inserted into a keyway and to use spring pressure to quickly rotate a plug clockwise or counterclockwise. The device is used when a lock has been picked in the wrong direction. (A-1 Security Manufacturing Corp.)

Among the three methods, Schoemaker and Russo note that rules get weak results, while value analysis costs a lot in time and money So bootstrapping wins They expect it to become more common in future years We find a recent example far afield, in a business that is famous for its high-paid experts: major league baseball Everyone knows that money buys the best players, who win more games But in a New Yorker article, The Buffett of Baseball, James Surowiecki tells about Billy Beane, the general manager of the 12 Oakland A s Over the past few years, the A s have rivaled the New York Yankees as baseball s best team But Beane does it on a third of the Yankees payroll He just doesn t have the money How does Beane do it Bootstrapping.

insulation. Determining the amount of insulation in a finished exterior wall is more difficult. However, you can make a quick determination whether the wall is inadequately insulated or has no insulation by feeling the inside surface during the heating season. If the wall feels cold to the touch, insulation is needed. Sometimes you can determine the amount of insulation by removing the cover to a light switch and peering into the wall space, using a flashlight. Caution should be observed, since the switch is electrically hot. Because of the small amount of open space between the wall and switch box, this method is usually not effective. Also, it is possible that the electrician who installed the wiring might have pulled the insulation away from the switch and outlet boxes to facilitate installation. In this case, you might think that there is no insulation in the wall. The only way to determine positively how much insulation there is in a finished exterior wall is to make a small hole in the wall (in a nonobvious location such as a closet) and measure it. The hole can then be patched. While you are determining the amount of insulation, you should also determine Insulation 253

Figure 2.24 Shims are used when disassembling pin tumbler cylinders. (Ilco)